Dr. Juan Cole's Million Shi'ite March

No predictions from the Good Doctor today, however you can tell he is FAN BOY thrilled that his Fat Boy Al Sadr was able to scrounge up a bit of a mob:

Tens of thousands of Shiites came out Saturday to Firdaws Square in downtown Baghdad to protest the continued US military presence in Iraq. It is the largest demonstration ever achieved by the Sadr Movement, who are Shiite nationalists. The crowds reenacted the pulling down of the statue of Saddam Hussein two years ago by pulling down effigies of George W. Bush and Tony Blair, dressed in orange jumpsuits to recall torture of prisoners at Abu Ghraib and elsewhere.

They chanted, "Yes, yes to Islam, No, no to America!". Thousands of Sunnis gathered in downtown Ramadi to protest, as well. The Association of Muslim Scholars declined to have their Sunni Arab followers join the Shiites at Firdaws Square, which points to continued sharp ethnic divisions that have made it difficult for Iraqi nationalists to unite against the American presence.

The back story the Doctor isn't giving us:

Al-Sadr's followers had predicted a million people would turn out, but the number, while substantial, fell short. The crowd appeared to be overwhelmingly Shiite, despite a call by a leading Sunni cleric in Baghdad for his followers to join protests.

About 1,500 Sunni Muslims did gather in Ramadi, in western Iraq, to demand that U.S. forces withdraw. Despite the anti-American slogans, some in the crowd expressed support for the United States. "I came here today to mark the fall of the tyrant Saddam and to call for his execution," said Muhammad Abdul Hussein, 42, an anesthesiologist now working as a salesman. "We deeply thank all the people, including the Americans, who helped us get rid of him."

However, I know that Dr. Juan Cole is a scholar of humanities and that objective truths like, say, the number of people are a bit irrelevent...after all, what's 900,000 difference among friends! And we won't even dock him for Abdul Hussein....

Dr. Juan Cole, Mystic!

-12 Points, Total Score -12
(Two Pending Questions)

A new president is announced...Dr. Juan Cole's deep insight is bolded below:

Jalal Talabani appears to have had a senior moment of some magnitude. In the course of announcing that Ibrahim Jaafari will be Iraq's new prime minister, he says he suffered a memory lapse and had to leave the podium so an aide could remind him of Jaafari's name. The superstitious took it as an ill omen.

Truly what insight the Doctor possesses!

Dr. Juan Cole ventures far afield for bad news today, an analysis of the Egyptian tourist bombing from a Chinese newspaper:

The analysis of the bombing of a tourist area of Cairo, which killed 4 and wounded 18 on Thursday given by the Egyptian social scientists interviewed by China's Xinhuanet seems to me quite sophisticated. They pointed to increased wealth stratification (social contradictions) in Egypt-- where the poor have stayed poor and the rich have gotten a bit better off during the past 25 years. They also pointed to the destabilizing effect on the region of the Iraq War and other American policies.

Truly, Dr. Juan Cole, they ARE sophisiticated. They have learned the critical analytical technique of reductio ad Americum!

And what is the critical lesson we should learn, Professor?

That Bush wimped out on destroying Bin Laden and al-Zawahiri and instead poured $300 billion into the Iraq quagmire has left the jihadis free to plot and act.

Recap of Recent Jihadi Activity:

• 9/11 Attacks--4 Jetliners, WTC destroyed, Pentagon severly damaged. 3000+ killed.
• Bali--Multiple Jihadis with truck bomb blow up tourist bar. 202 killed.
• Madrid--Mulitiple Jihadis with backpacks bomb commuter train. 190 killed.
• Cairo--Jihadi superstar on motorcycle blows up a tour group. 3 killed.

Hm. Indeed Professor, there is a clear increase in the scale and sophistication of Al Qaeda attacks.

Predictions for July 8, 2004:

Ash-Sharq al-Awsat reports that Jaafari pledged to make headway on Iraq's poor security, and that he sharply criticized the outgoing government of Iyad Allawi for letting Baathists serve in the security and intelligence forces. Jaafari appears set to purge them.

Solid prediction Dr. Cole (worth four points). We'll track this one.

Look, if all the Mahdi Army amounts to is angry young men with guns persuaded to support puritanical morality and to give their political loyalty to Muqtada al-Sadr, then it can never be "defeated" by the US military. It is just an urban social movement. You'd have to change the character of the Shiite slums to make an impact on it, which won't happen tomorrow. ...
Mahdi Army militiamen are easy to kill, hard to defeat.

BOLD prediction Dr. Cole--The return of Fat Boy's Army!(Worth TEN points). We'll track this one anxiously.

Obliviously Arrogant Dr. Juan Cole Quote! (Archives)

Universities are about skewering sacred cows. Anyone who doesn't want their views challenged or their feelings hurt should stay away from them. If you can't handle an intellectual challenge, you shouldn't be on campus. And you certainly shouldn't be editing a major newspaper.

Dr. Juan Cole, responding to the challenge Columbia University students made to professors in the Department of Middle Eastern Studies advocating for the sacred cow of Palestinian interests.

Well, YOU KNOW, the Council Elections are Really Where the Game Is!

-12 Points, Total Score -12
(Two Pending Questions)

In his neverending search for rocks to overturn and find worms, Dr. Juan Cole has found a potentially unlimited source: local elections in Iraq! After all, no matter how well the national situation might improve, there will always be some local mischief somewhere.

Edmund Sanders of the Los Angeles Times has gotten the story. This piece is to my knowledge the first major article in the American press on the story of the provincial elections and all the problems attending them.
...
Sanders' version raises the question of whether the Americans and the Iranians are fighting a proxy war for control of Najaf, with [former American-appointed governor Adnan Zurfi] acting with Rumsfeld's backing, while SCIRI is close to Tehran. Najaf province has a population of over half a million, and is home to the extremely important religious pilgrimage site of the Tomb of Ali (the Prophet's cousin and son-in-law).

Rumsfeld you DOG!

Predictions for April 7, 2005:

Could Iraq be the undoing of both major political parties that backed the war in the West? President Bush is suffering from the worst poll numbers of any second-term president in the spring after his reelection since World War II. If the rest of his second term goes like this, it could hand the Democrats the White House in 2008.

Two Tentative predictions--Blair's government will fall and the Republicans will lose in 2006. Worth two points each.

Dr. Juan Cole's Carnival of the Really Mad Iraqi Newspapers

-12 Points, Total Score -12
(One Pending Question)

This analysis of Dr. Juan Cole's predictions will come from various "Informed Comments" he posted on April 6.

As the late, lamented Allahpudit might have said, "Oh HO!" Dr. Juan Cole in in a great rage! Dr. Juan Cole has fired up the ol' BBC negative-quote-generating machine into high gear! It is, Dr. Juan Cole promises, "few paras. (from a long set of summaries." Of course, since the source (BBC World Monitoring) is pay only, we'll have to take the Good Doctor's word that he extracted a...representative...set of quotes, won't we.

Only one prediction today:

When and if the divisions [e.d. between Iraqis] lessen, I expect to see a popular movement to get US troops out of Iraq.

Tentative prediction/assertion (worth two points). We'll track this one.


Announcing a New Dr. Juan Cole Area of Expertise--UPDATE THOSE ROLODEXES! (Archives)
"Media Analyst"

Obliviously Arrogant Dr. Juan Cole Quote! (Archives)

I get slammed by the Jeff Jarvis's for reporting bad news (shouldn't it be reported?) or I get cited by rightwing bloggers when I say things like that the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement cannot win.

Yes, Dr. Juan Cole is well known for the evenhanded way he approaches the left and the right!

Missing the Forests for the Tiny Little Blades of Grass

April 5, 2005:

Important events in Iraq according to Dr. Juan Cole

• Another Bombing at Abu Ghraib (Dr. Cole fails to note it was an abject failure)
• Sunni Meeting Collapses in Acrimony (A squabble over vice-presidental candidates on April 4)
• AlertNet provides an update on Fallujah (Apparently 70 percent of the homes in the den of outlaws and terrorists were destroyed. Go figure...but I forget that Dr. Juan Cole is an expert on counterinsurgency!)

Slow bad news day for the Doctor!

Sorry, No Mulligans Dr. Cole!

-12 Points, Total Score -12
(One Pending Question)

The first analysis of Dr. Cole's predictions will come from various "Informed Comments" he posted on April 4:

The Guardian reports that the Iraqi parliament finally decided on a Sunni Arab speaker, Hajem al-Hassani, on Sunday. Although this step does break the logjam to some extent, it is not exactly a huge breakthrough in and of itself.

Tentative prediction/assertion (worth two points):
But, the government is formed ONE DAY LATER! -2 Points for Dr. Cole .

If the parliament stays deadlocked very much longer, the intrepid Anthony Shadid reveals, there is serious talk among the grand ayatollahs in Najaf about bringing millions of protesters out into the streets to force the politicians' hands. (Actually the subtext here is that such massive Shiite protests would put pressure on the Kurds to give up some of their maximalist demands and come to a compromise.)

Significant prediction here, worth five points, that the threat of Sunni People Power will lead to a rollback of Kurdish demands:
On April 5, say hello to the KURDISH PRESIDENT OF IRAQ, Jalal Talabani! -5 Points for Dr. Cole!

More informed comment, from a conference call with General Wesley Clark on April 4

But the problem is that if we over-stay our welcome, and if we do in fact weaken the Sunni guerrillas sufficiently, there is a danger that at that point the Shiites (no longer afraid of the Sunnis and by then very tired of our military presence) will just toss us out unceremoniously.

Tentative but precise prediction:
Two points to be added or removed from Dr. Cole's score when it occurs.

I said I saw no evidence that the guerrilla war was winding down.

A clear, unequivocal statement that is also, clearly wrong...to say there is "no evidence" is to be blind. For one thing, the number of attacks by the insurgents has dropped dramatically -5 points for Dr. Cole!


Announcing a New Dr. Juan Cole Area of Expertise--UPDATE THOSE ROLODEXES! (Archives)
"Counterinsurgency Operations"


Bonus! Juan Cole Jewish Conspiracy Alert! (Archives)

I thought Clark put his finger on a key contradiction in the Bush administration "forward policy" in the Middle East, of targeting the governments of Syria and Iran for destruction even while the US needs their cooperation to avoid widening disaster in Iraq. This policy is not rational if it were intended solely for the benefit of the United States, and he thinks it derives from a concern to bolster regional allies even at the expense of US interests.

Translation: According to Dr. Cole, Wesley Clark believes that the Bush Administration puts the interests of the Jews (er, Israel) over that of the US! Sounds like someone needs to ask General Clark that question!


Obliviously Arrogant Dr. Juan Cole Quote! (Archives)

Not everything in Iraq can be reduced to the issue of whether it is good or bad for the Bush administration or the Blair government.

Indeed! For Dr. Cole, events are either bad for Bush/Blair or "to be understood in (their) Iraqi context."

Dr. Juan Cole's Areas of Expertise

Dr. Juan Cole is not like normal people, for he has the amazing ability to speak authoritatively on a wide range of subjects. I am amazed that his dedication to learning and scholarship is so strong.

I am providing, as a public service, a list of Dr. Juan Cole's areas of expertise that are revealed through the course of this project:

• Counterinsurgency Operations (April 4, 2005)
• Media Analysit (April 6, 2005)

Dr. Juan Cole Jewish Conspiracy Alert!

April 4, 2004:

I thought Clark put his finger on a key contradiction in the Bush administration "forward policy" in the Middle East, of targeting the governments of Syria and Iran for destruction even while the US needs their cooperation to avoid widening disaster in Iraq. This policy is not rational if it were intended solely for the benefit of the United States, and he thinks it derives from a concern to bolster regional allies even at the expense of US interests.

Translation: According to Dr. Juan Cole, Wesley Clark believes that the Bush Administration puts the interests of the Jews (er, Israel) over that of the US!

Obliviously Arrogant Dr. Juan Cole Quotes

April 8, 2004

Universities are about skewering sacred cows. Anyone who doesn't want their views challenged or their feelings hurt should stay away from them. If you can't handle an intellectual challenge, you shouldn't be on campus. And you certainly shouldn't be editing a major newspaper.

Dr. Juan Cole, responding to the challenge Columbia University students made to professors in the Department of Middle Eastern Studies advocating for the sacred cow of Palestinian interests.

April 6, 2004

I get slammed by the Jeff Jarvis's for reporting bad news (shouldn't it be reported?) or I get cited by rightwing bloggers when I say things like that the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement cannot win.

Yes, Dr. Juan Cole is well known for the evenhanded way he approaches the left and the right!

April 4, 2005:

Not everything in Iraq can be reduced to the issue of whether it is good or bad for the Bush administration or the Blair government.

Indeed! For Dr. Cole, events are either bad for Bush/Blair or "to be understood in (their) Iraqi context."

Meet the Contestants!

This blog is a year-long project to examine in some detail the predictive capacity of two noted savants: Dr. Juan Cole, professor of, well, EVERYTHING at the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor


and my cat, Lone Star.


When Dr. Cole makes a prediction of some sort on his blog, I will note it on this blog. Then, Lone Star will make a prediction on the same subject! Who will be the better prognosticator, a tenured U Mich professor or a white, furry feline!

To make things a bit more interesting, I'll also be randomly selecting weeks from the time Dr. Cole began his web log. If there are predictions made there, I will ask Lone Star to make his own prediction. Since he is, well, a cat, and a bit out of the loop on world events it will be JUST LIKE he made a prediction in the past!

Now, for all of his talents, Lone Star isn't a linguist par excellence like Dr. Cole. So, I'll be having Lone Star choose his predictions in a random and hopefully humorous fashion. Please feel free to make suggestions.